Post Maria Lazar Rout: Diagnosing the Problem
It’s not hard to figure out what’s going on here. To put it more simply:
Republicans in the age of Trump traded some more college-educated, affluent suburban voters (especially women) for formerly disenfranchised rural voters.
This strategy worked for Trump because these folks saw him as the embodiment of their anger toward the system and elites. He spoke authentically and spoke to their economic disenfranchisement. They saw him as an outsider who was not politics as usual.
Republicans haven’t figured out how to get this model to work in state races. The challenge for candidates is this: Do they wrap themselves in the Trump flag when so many Trump voters stay home, especially in lower turnout and less visible April races where that effect is more pronounced? Especially when that’s exactly the strategy of the left – to tie them to Trump to drive out angry liberal voters? Or do they forge their own political identity and reach for independents to supplement the GOP base, since so many Trump voters stay home?
This is a very different victory model than in the past. I am not casting aspersions on rural folks. I grew up in Rusk County. I love the rural Wisconsin persona and culture. I like rural folks more than people down south (sorry.) I also know their mindset well. They are very disgusted by elites (elite media, elite donors, elite parties, etc.) and they feel it’s hopeless to vote. Except for Trump. They are economically struggling and feel he “saw” them.
Heck, it’s the plot of every Hollywood movie – some archetypal action hero fighting against a shadowy elite that is trying to take him out. The arrests, Butler, all of these things helped Trump. So did a terrible opponent, border crisis, and the price of eggs. Frankly, a logger in Crawford County or trucker in Ladysmith doesn’t give a sh*t about an esoteric court race.
In contrast, Scott Walker won by driving turnout in the suburban WOW counties to stratospheric heights. He did this by creating a foil (angry protesters, unions), with a zero tax levy increase message, and by ginning up his base. Charlie Sykes and Mark Belling had an enormously powerful tandem megaphone. Ironically, everything Charlie trashes now, he helped build.
Tommy Thompson’s model was to break the magic percentage of 40% in Milwaukee County to win statewide.
Some Republicans have managed to win statewide with the Trump model. Ron Johnson – lots of money, incumbent, huge personality, authentic, high name ID, and a terrible opponent. John Leiber – low-profile race with no incumbent.
Tom Tiffany has a chance to do it because of his name ID, rural appeal, lack of an incumbent, and terrible opponents.
This model works least well for Republicans in low-turnout races, and donors getting frustrated and not investing in them compounds the problem. There’s been hope that Kenosha-Racine getting redder could help counteract the WOW erosion (and the sky-high rage-fueled liberal turnout in Dane.)
This is so much bigger than Maria Lazar or her campaign strategy.